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26 Oct 2022

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD builds cushion around $1,650 as yields set to bleed further

  • Gold price is forming a base of around $1,650.00 for a fresh rebound amid a joyful market mood.
  • Yields have dropped to near 4.10% and are making way for more downside amid S&P500’s bullish bets.
  • Households have dropped their plans of buying a new house due to accelerating interest obligations.

Gold price (XAU/USD) is building a base around the critical support of $1,650.00 after correcting from Tuesday’s high at $1,662.45. The precious metal could resume its upside journey as the spirits of market participants are extremely optimistic.

A third consecutive bullish settlement of the S&P500 has brought a sense of optimism to the market. On the contrary, alpha on US Treasuries has dropped sharply and may display more decline ahead as optimism will stay for longer. In the opinion of economists at Morgan Stanley, the rally in S&P500 could be extended well into the 4000/4150 area.

This indicates that the market mood will remain cheerful, which could have a devastating impact on yields. At the press time, the 10-year US Treasury yields are trading at 4.10% and could surrender the cushion of 4.0% ahead as clouds of uncertainty are fading away.

Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY) has been dragged to 110.75 as the appeal for safe haven has trimmed significantly. In today’s session, the New Home Sales data will be a major trigger. The economic data is seen lower at 0.585M vs. the prior release of 0.685M on a monthly basis. Accelerating interest rates have resulted in higher installment obligations for households, which are forcing them to postpone their demand for a new house.

Gold technical analysis

On an hourly scale, gold prices have bounced back sharply after dropping below the horizontal support placed from Thursday’s high at $1,640.55. The precious metal is expected to display a sideways movement ahead as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has shifted into the 40.00-60.00 range. The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $1,651.50 is acting as major support for the counter.

Gold hourly chart

 

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