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26 Oct 2022

EUR/JPY approaches 148.00 despite BOJ’s stealth intervention, ECB/BOJ policy grabs focus

  • EUR/JPY is aiming to recapture the 148.00 hurdle despite BOJ’s stealth intervention.
  • To address external demand shocks, the BOJ could continue its ultra-dovish policy.
  • Even an ECB’s 75 bps rate hike could fail to offer substantial support to Euro.

The EUR/JPY pair is gradually marching towards the immediate resistance of 148.00 in the early Tokyo session. The asset has overstepped the low-impact hurdle of 147.40 and is scaling more highs despite the headwinds of the Bank of Japan (BOJ)’s stealth intervention in the currency markets amid one-sided speculative moves against the Japanese yen.

The risk profile is extremely cheerful as S&P500 has recorded significant gains consecutively for the past three trading sessions. It is worth noting that the cross has crossed the knee-jerk reaction recorded from 147.40 on Monday to near 143.72. On Monday, Analysts at National Australia Bank (NAB) in Sydney cited that “It’s blindingly obvious that the BOJ is intervening,” Therefore, the knee-jerk reaction recorded on Monday could be the result of BOJ’s intervention in the currency markets.

Going forward, investors are shifting their focus toward the interest rate decision by the BOJ. Considering the external demand shocks, BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda would continue with an ultra-loose monetary policy to spurt the growth prospects. Also, Japanese officials are worried that the inflation rate could return below 2% again, therefore, keeping policy extremely loose is an optimal option.

On the Eurozone front, the European Central Bank (ECB) is set to announce a second consecutive 75 basis point (bps) rate hike, as per analysts at Rabobank. Projections of a 75 bps rate hike have also been approved by Economists at ING. In addition to that, they believe that the hike should fail to offer substantial and long-lasting support to the euro.

Talking on the European energy crisis, Germany’s Economy Minister Robert Habeck said on Tuesday that they “expect the gas price mechanism decision at the next EU Council.” He further added that “Joint EU purchases are the best way to keep the gas price low,”

 

 

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