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12 Dec 2022

USD/INR Price News: Rupee slides to 82.70 ahead of India/US inflation, Fed meeting

  • USD/INR prints three-day losing streak as it takes the bids to refresh intraday high.
  • Precursors for US inflation suggest hawkish rate hike announcements from the Federal Reserve.
  • India inflation, Industrial/Manufacturing Production keeps traders on the edge, recovery in oil prices also fuels USD/INR prices.

USD/INR stays firmer for the third consecutive day, up 0.20% intraday near 82.70, as traders await India inflation and industrial output figures during early Monday. In doing so, the Indian Rupee (INR) pair takes clues from the recent recovery in oil prices, as well as the firmer US Dollar amid the risk aversion.

Fears of recession join the market’s cautious mood ahead of the key data/events to underpin the US Dollar’s haven demand. That said, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said, “There's a risk of a recession, but it certainly isn't something that is necessary to bring inflation down.” Further, the economic slowdown fears could be linked to the yield curve inversion as the US 10-year Treasury bond yields and the two-year bond coupons portray a negative difference.

Also favoring the US Dollar could be the recently firmer data. Among them, the Producer Price Index (PPI) matched the market forecasts of 7.4% YoY for November versus 8.1% prior. Further, the Core PPI rose to 6.2% YoY versus 6.0% expected and 6.7% previous readings. Additionally, preliminary readings of the University of Michigan’s (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 59.1 for December versus 53.3 market forecasts and 56.8 final readings for November. Moreover, the 1-year inflation expectations dropped to 4.6%, the lowest since September 2021 while compared to 4.9% expected whereas 5-10 year expectations were stable at 3.0%. It should be noted that the US ISM Services PMI improved to 56.5 versus 54.4 expected.

It should be noted that the WTI crude oil snaps a six-day losing streak as it rises 0.20% intraday gains near $71.60. India’s reliance on oil imports makes the INR susceptible to energy price moves.

Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 Futures print mild losses near 3,960 while tracking Friday’s downbeat close of Wall Street. Further, the US 10-year Treasury yields remain firmer around 3.56%. It should be observed that the US 2-year Treasury bond yields flash 4.33% as the latest quote.

Looking forward, India’s monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November, expected 6.92% YoY versus 6.77% prior, as well as Industrial and Manufacturing Output for October, will be important for the USD/INR pair traders to watch. However, major attention will be on the US CPI and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) as the hawkish bets on the Fed increased of late.

Technical analysis

USD/INR again pierces a two-month-old descending resistance line, around 82.60 by the press time, amid firmer MACD signals and upbeat RSI (14). As a result, the bulls are likely to overcome the stated upside hurdle this time, which in turn could challenge the all-time high marked in October around 83.42.

 

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