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14 Mar 2023

AUD/USD flat-lines above mid-0.6600s amid positive risk tone, resurgent USD demand

  • AUD/USD recovers early lost ground, albeit lacks follow-through or bullish conviction.
  • A positive risk tone benefits the risk-sensitive Aussie, though a stronger USD caps gains.
  • Traders also seem reluctant to place aggressive bets ahead of the crucial US CPI report.

The AUD/USD pair attracts some dip-buying near the 0.6630 area on Tuesday and climbs to a fresh daily high during the early part of the European session. Spot prices, however, struggle to capitalize on the intraday move up beyond the 0.6670 region and remain below a multi-day top touched the previous day.

As the shock from the collapse of three US banks in a week began to recede, a modest recovery in the global equity markets turn out to be a key factor lending some support to the risk-sensitive Aussie. That said, a goodish pickup in the US Dollar demand, bolstered by rebounding US Treasury bond yields, keeps a lid on any meaningful upside for the AUD/USD pair, at least for the time being.

The uptick in the US bond yields comes after the US authorities moved to limit the fallout from the sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). In fact, the Federal Reserve on Sunday announced that it will make available additional funding to eligible depository institutions to help assure banks have the ability to meet the needs of all their depositors and ease fears of a broader systemic crisis.

Apart from this, traders seem reluctant to place aggressive bets and prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the release of the key US consumer inflation figures, due later during the early North American session. Given the strain on the US banking system, the Fed is now expected to slow, if not halt, its interest rate-hiking cycle. Hence, a stronger US CPI print might do little to impress the USD bulls.

This, in turn, supports prospects for some near-term appreciating move for the AUD/USD pair. That said, the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) recent dovish shift, signalling that it might be nearing the end of its rate-hiking cycle, warrants some caution before confirming that spot prices have bottomed out in the near term.

Technical levels to watch

 

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USD Index: Risks of another leg lower – ING

The fallout of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank is still unfolding. What can we expect today? Economists at ING note that risks
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