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29 Mar 2023

AUD/USD extends softer Aussie CPI-led downfall, refreshes daily low near 0.6675-70 area

  • A combination of factors prompts fresh selling around AUD/USD on Wednesday.
  • The softer Australian CPI reaffirms bets that the RBA will pause its rate-hike cycle.
  • A goodish pickup in the USD demand further contributes to the intraday downfall.

The AUD/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's positive move and comes under some renewed selling pressure on Wednesday. The steady intraday descent extends through the early European session and drags spot prices to a fresh daily low, around the 0.6675-0.6670 region in the last hour.

The Australian Dollar weakens in reaction to the softer-than-expected domestic consumer inflation figures for February, which reaffirms bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will refrain from raising interest rates at its April meeting. In fact, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that the headline CPI decelerated from the previous month’s reading of 7.4% to the 6.8% yearly rate, or an eight-month low in February. Apart from this, the emergence of some US Dollar (USD) buying is seen exerting downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair.

The recent rally in the US Treasury bond yields, bolstered by easing fears of a full-blown banking crisis, assists the USD to snap a two-day losing streak. That said, the Federal Reserve's less hawkish stance, along with the prevalent risk-off environment, could cap gains for the safe-haven buck and lend support to the AUD/USD pair. It is worth recalling that the Fed last week signalled that a pause to interest rate hikes was on the horizon. Furthermore, the takeover of Silicon Valley Bank by First Citizens Bank & Trust Company helped calm market nerves about the contagion risk.

The aforementioned mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution before placing aggressive bearish bets around the AUD/USD pair and positioning for any further depreciating move. Traders now look to the US economic docket, featuring the release of Pending Home Sales. This, along with the US bond yields and the broader risk sentiment, might influence the USD and provide some impetus to the AUD/USD pair. The focus, however, will remain on the final US Q4 GDP on Thursday and the Core PCE Price Index - the Fed's preferred inflation gauge - on Friday.

Technical levels to watch

 

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