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17 Oct 2023

USD/JPY Price Analysis: Consolidates around mid-149.00s, bullish potential seems intact

  • USD/JPY struggles for a firm direction and oscillates in a narrow band for the second straight day.
  • The divergent Fed-BoJ policy outlook continues to act as a tailwind and should limit the downside.
  • The technical setup also favours bulls and supports prospects for a move towards the 150.00 mark.

The USD/JPY pair extends its sideways consolidative price move for the second straight day and remains confined in a narrow range around mid-149.00s through the Asian session on Tuesday.

The uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next policy move keeps the US Dollar (USD) bulls on the defensive. This, along with speculations that Japanese authorities will intervene in the foreign exchange market to support the domestic currency, acts as a headwind for the USD/JPY pair. The downside, however, remains cushioned in the wake of a more dovish stance adopted by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which might continue to undermine the Japanese Yen (JPY).

From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair is holding above an ascending trend-line extending from the monthly swing low. The said support, currently pegged around the 149.15 area, now coincides with the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and should act as a pivotal point. Oscillators on the daily chart, meanwhile, are still holding in the positive territory and support prospects for the emergence of some dip-buying at lower levels.

Hence, it will be prudent to wait for a convincing break below the aforementioned trend-line support before placing bearish bets. Some follow-through selling below the 149.00 round figure might then drag the USD/JPY pair towards the 200-period SMA support near the 148.15 region. This is closely followed by the 148.00 mark, below which the downward trajectory could get extended towards retesting the October 3 swing low, around the 147.30-147.25 region.

On the flip side, the 149.80-149.85 region is likely to act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the 150.00 psychological mark or the potential intervention level. A sustained strength beyond will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and pave the way for a further appreciating move towards the 151.00 round figure. The momentum could get extended and eventually push the USD/JPY pair closer to the 152.00 mark, or a multi-decade high touched in October 2022.

USD/JPY 4-hour chart

fxsoriginal

Technical levels to watch

 

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