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21 Dec 2023

USD/CHF Price Analysis: Consolidates above 0.8600 ahead of US core PCE data

  • USD/CHF remains choppy above 0.8600 ahead of Fed’s preferred inflation tool.
  • The appeal for the US Dollar remains bearish as rate cut expectations by the Fed deepen.
  • USD/CHF may continue its downside journey towards 0.8555.

The USD/CHF pair trades in a tight range above the round-level support of 0.8600 in the European session. The Swiss Franc asset struggles for a direction as investors await the United States core Personal Consumption Expenditure price index (PCE) for November, which will be published on Friday.

S&P500 futures have added decent gains in the London session, portraying a revival in the risk-appetite of the market participants. The US Dollar Index (DXY) consolidates around 102.40 but downside remains favoured as bets in favour of early rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) have deepend.

Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc continues to perform well as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to keep policy rates restricted for the forseeable future.

USD/CHF has remained in the negative trajectory from last two months and is expected to extend its downside journey towards July 18 low around 0.8555. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.8730 has been acting as a barricade for the US Dollar bulls. A potential resistance is plotted from December 4 low around 0.8666.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has shifted into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00, which indicates that the momentum is in the downside direction.

Going forward, a  decisive break below December 19 low of 0.8593 would drag the asset towards July 18 low at 0.8555 and the psychological support of 0.8500.

On the flip side, a recovery move above December 18 high at 0.8711 would drive the asset towards December 06 high around 0.8750. A breach of the latter would open doors for more upside towards August 03 high at 0.8800.

USD/CHF daily chart

 

 

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