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24 Jan 2024

BoC Preview: Three scenarios and their implications for USD/CAD – TDS

Economists at TD Securities discuss the Bank of Canada (BoC) Interest Rate Decision and its implications for the USD/CAD pair.

Base Case: Mildly Hawkish (70%)

The BoC leaves overnight rate at 5.00% and notes concern about persistent price pressures despite more evidence of waning demand. Modest downgrades to GDP/CPI in Jan MPR, with latter driven by energy prices, as unchanged forward guidance keeps the (empty) threat of rate hikes on the table going forward. USD/CAD -0.10%.

Dovish: (25%)

Bank leaves overnight rate at 5.00% but lays some early groundwork for rate cuts with dovish tweaks to forward guidance by dropping the reference to further hikes. Statement also cites concern around underlying prices/wage pressures despite weaker growth backdrop, while revised guidance introduces some caveats to the timeline for cuts. USD/CAD +0.30%.

Extremely Dovish (5%)

The BoC leaves overnight rate at 5.00% but throws caution to the wind by dropping threat of hikes and leaving guidance open-ended. Statement notes that headwinds to activity have increased and that inflation pressures have subsided outside of shelter component. MPR revises GDP/CPI growth lower over 2023/24, projects flat print on Q4 GDP. USD/CAD +0.70%.

Jan 24, 2024

Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD moves back above mid-$22.00s, flirts with weekly top

Silver (XAG/USD) gains positive traction for the second straight day on Wednesday and recovers further from its lowest level since November 13, around the $21.95-$21.90 area touched earlier this week.
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Jan 24, 2024

Canada Interest Rate Decision Preview: BoC expected to remain on hold for fourth straight meeting

It is widely anticipated that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will maintain its policy rate at 5.0% for the fourth consecutive time at its event on Wednesday, January 24.
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