Gold Price Forecast: $2,365 appears a tough nut to crack for XAU/USD buyers
- Gold price consolidates rebound from two-week lows early Tuesday.
- The Dollar meets fresh supply amid sluggish Treasury bond yields and China-led market optimism.
- Gold price recovery stalls below rising wedge support-turned resistance but RSI holds above the 50 level.
Gold price is consolidating its recovery mode from two-week lows, hovering near $2,350 early Tuesday, as traders look forward to the upcoming speeches from US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers.
Gold price awaits Fedspeak for fresh cues on rates
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester are due to speak at a Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) event titled "Policy Panel Discussion" at 04:55 GMT. Their commentaries will be closely scrutinized by markets for gauging the path forward on interest rates.
The Fedspeak could help revive the US Dollar demand, if the policymakers stick to their cautious approach to inflation, especially after April’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. In anticipation of this, the non-interest-bearing Gold price is treading water, pausing its recovery momentum.
Gold buyers are also taking a breather, as risk sentiment remains in a sweeter spot, courtesy of renewed optimism surrounding China’s embattled property market. China’s Shanghai City announced several measures to prop up the country’s housing market.
However, the extended weakness in the US Dollar is helping Gold price to stay afloat, as they await US traders’ return after a long weekend for fresh trading impulse. Also, in focus will remain more Fed policymakers’ speeches, due later in American trading on Tuesday.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
Gold price defied the bearish bias on a rising wedge breakdown on Monday, supported by a positive shift in the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), above the 50 level.
However, the further upside hinges on acceptance above the wedge support-turned-resistance at $2,365 on a daily closing basis.
At the moment, Gold price battles the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,349, having closed above that level a day ago.
If Gold buyers managed to regain control above the aforementioned barrier at $2,365, a fresh advance toward the May 24 high of $2,384 cannot be ruled out.
The next topside hurdle is seen at the $2,400 mark.
On the flip side, Gold sellers need to crack the 50-day SMA support at $2,317 to resume the downtrend.
The next cushion is aligned at the $2,300 level, below which the May 3 low of $2,277 will be tested.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.