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17 Jan 2025

CAD: Carney’s leadership bid not a game changer – ING

Mark Carney formally announced yesterday that he will run for Canada’s Liberal Party leadership to replace Justin Trudeau. The consensus appears to be that the leadership contest will be a close one between Carney and former finance minister Chrystia Freeland. Recent opinion polls show Carney has a small advantage over Freeland, while betting markets give him a 70-30 lead, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

Markets expect some support around 1.430 in USD/CAD

"In our view, Carney remains the more market-friendly alternative, considering Freeland’s conflicting terms with Trump on trade. That said, it is likely that the new Liberal leader will face a parliament no-confidence vote and the probability of elections before the October statutory deadline remains high. The Conservative party, led by Pierre Poilievre, holds a huge lead in the polls, so we believe Poilievre's plan for the US-Canada trade relationship may be more relevant for Canadian markets than that of the new Liberal leader."

"For now, the loonie remains in limbo. USD/CAD has been flat since the start of the year, and still embedding a 3% risk premium associated with the risk of Trump’s tariffs – according to our short-term fair value model. Even if unilateral 25% tariffs on Canada don’t materialize, smaller universal tariffs would still asymmetrically damage the economy of the main US trade partners. In 2023, exports to the US accounted for roughly 20% of Canadian GDP."

"To rebound at this stage, CAD requires more reports suggesting a lighter-touch approach by Trump on trade. Barring that, we expect the risk premium to linger and some support around 1.430 in USD/CAD."

Jan 17, 2025

GBP/USD: Weakness in GBP stabilizes – UOB Group

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is expected to continue to trade in a range, probably between 1.2190 and 1.2280. In the longer run, weakness in GBP has stabilized; it is likely to trade in a range between 1.2130 and 1.2390, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
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Jan 17, 2025

China: 4Q24 GDP is boosted by industrial sector – UOB Group

China’s 4Q24 GDP growth accelerated to 5.4% y/y, 1.6% q/q sa. The 2024 full year growth of 5.0% has met official target, coming in slightly higher than our forecast of 4.9%. The stronger recovery was driven by the industrial sector, UOB Group's economist Ho Woei Chen notes.
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