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11 Apr 2025

USD/CNH: Any decline is unlikely to reach the major support at 7.2430 – UOB Group

Scope for US Dollar (USD) to continue to weaken vs Chinese Yuan (CNH); any decline is unlikely to reach the major support at 7.2430. In the longer run, sharp but short-lived price action has resulted in a mixed outlook; USD is likely to trade between 7.2430 and 7.3700 for now, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

USD is likely to trade between 7.2430 and 7.3700 for now

24-HOUR VIEW: "Yesterday, we expected USD to 'trade in a range of 7.3300/7.3900.' Instead of trading in a range, USD plummeted to 7.3000. While there is scope for USD to continue to weaken, oversold conditions suggest any decline is unlikely to reach the major support at 7.2430 (there is another support at 7.2700). On the upside, 7.3400 is a strong resistance level (minor resistance is at 7.3250)."

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "After the sharp rally in USD to 7.4288, we indicated two days ago (09 Apr, spot at 7.4100) that the 'surge in momentum indicates that USD is likely to continue to rise, and the level to monitor is 7.4500.' Our view was invalidated quickly as USD plunged and broke below our ‘strong support’ level of 7.3100 yesterday. The sharp but short-lived price action has resulted in a mixed outlook. For the time being, USD is likely to trade between 7.2430 and 7.3700."

Apr 11, 2025

Russia exports less oil at lower prices – Commerzbank

The price of Russian ESPO crude fell below $60 per barrel for the first time at the beginning of the week, while the price of Urals fell towards $50 per barrel, the lowest price level since March 2023, according to Reuters, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
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Apr 11, 2025

Large discrepancies between surveys on OPEC production in March – Commerzbank

The OPEC production surveys by Reuters and Bloomberg again showed a considerable discrepancy for March, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
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