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2 Mar 2015
US NFP print on Friday to suggest a positive outlook for labor market - BAML
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Strategists at BofA-Merrill Lynch, forecast Friday’s US NFP to register a 250k print and further comment on its impact on US rates.
Key Quotes
“Friday's payroll report will be the major focus for the rates market next week. We expect the Feb non-farm payrolls report to print at 250,000, slightly weaker than the recent pace, but still suggestive of healthy labor market gains.”
“Since QE3 in October 2014, we find that the rates markets have become more sensitive to payroll prints. On average, we find that 2y and 10y rates have moved almost twice as much on payroll days since October compared to the 10 months prior.”
“We continue to recommend an EDZ5-EDZ6 steepener as we see the 83bp slope in this curve as too flat, assuming the Fed actually begins hiking this year, which is our expectation.”
Key Quotes
“Friday's payroll report will be the major focus for the rates market next week. We expect the Feb non-farm payrolls report to print at 250,000, slightly weaker than the recent pace, but still suggestive of healthy labor market gains.”
“Since QE3 in October 2014, we find that the rates markets have become more sensitive to payroll prints. On average, we find that 2y and 10y rates have moved almost twice as much on payroll days since October compared to the 10 months prior.”
“We continue to recommend an EDZ5-EDZ6 steepener as we see the 83bp slope in this curve as too flat, assuming the Fed actually begins hiking this year, which is our expectation.”