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10 Sep 2013
Will lack of data flow Tuesday allow “risk-on” trade to continue unabated?
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Strategists are citing the old saying that an object in motion will remain in motion – in this case the object is the general “risk-on” trade that has been in place since about 8/8.
No market moving US or European data to speak of – a help or hindrance?
With only Italian GDP on the calendar Tuesday, the question is whether the recent risk-on trade will just continue on unabated or if other factors such as Syria or market technicals will be enough to halt the momentum. Societe Generale was just out with a piece putting forth the idea that Tuesday should be another winner for the bulls.
Technical outlook for US stocks (as a proxy for risk)
Technicians vary in their opinion on where stocks will be at the end of the year, but most agree that there will be a pick-up in volatility in the short-term. As an example, Tim Thielen, CMT, Portfolio Manager of the Sea Change Portfolio, LP and author of The Sea Change Report sees the S&P futures topping out at around the 1,687 – 1,690 range – from 1,671 early Tuesday morning. From there, he is calling for a final move down to around 1,611. Before he’s colored as a bear, it should be known that he’s got the futures running from 1,611 to at least 1,802 in the months to come. So, the first part of that three-part market call meshes with Societe Generale's call for upside on Tuesday.
No market moving US or European data to speak of – a help or hindrance?
With only Italian GDP on the calendar Tuesday, the question is whether the recent risk-on trade will just continue on unabated or if other factors such as Syria or market technicals will be enough to halt the momentum. Societe Generale was just out with a piece putting forth the idea that Tuesday should be another winner for the bulls.
Technical outlook for US stocks (as a proxy for risk)
Technicians vary in their opinion on where stocks will be at the end of the year, but most agree that there will be a pick-up in volatility in the short-term. As an example, Tim Thielen, CMT, Portfolio Manager of the Sea Change Portfolio, LP and author of The Sea Change Report sees the S&P futures topping out at around the 1,687 – 1,690 range – from 1,671 early Tuesday morning. From there, he is calling for a final move down to around 1,611. Before he’s colored as a bear, it should be known that he’s got the futures running from 1,611 to at least 1,802 in the months to come. So, the first part of that three-part market call meshes with Societe Generale's call for upside on Tuesday.