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9 Feb 2016
JPY longs at highest levels since February 2012 - Rabobank
Jane Foley, FX Strategist at Rabobank, lists down the IMM Net Speculators’ Positioning as at 02 February 2016.
Key Quotes
• “Two weeks ago JPY longs reached their highest levels since February 2012. The BoJ’s surprise rate cut knocked them lower last week but only as far as their mid-January level.
• The number of USD longs crept a little higher last week for the sixth consecutive week.
• The level of EUR shorts plunged last week. This is despite the dovish tone of ECB President Draghi last month and may reflect continued reluctance of speculators to participate in carry trades.
• Net sterling short positions edged down modestly. The previous week they had moved to their strongest level since July 2013 following the comments from BoE Governor Carney that ‘now is not the time’ to hike interest rates. Political uncertainty linked to the UK EU membership referendum is a negative factors for GBP.
• CHF positions have held in negative territory. The CHF has slipped in the spot market sparking speculation that the SNB may have been intervening in the FX market in recent weeks.
• Net AUD shorts unwound some more of the recent gains. Chinese growth and the outlook for commodity prices remain principle drivers. CAD shorts also dropped lower. The outlook for crude oil prices remains a key focus.”
Key Quotes
• “Two weeks ago JPY longs reached their highest levels since February 2012. The BoJ’s surprise rate cut knocked them lower last week but only as far as their mid-January level.
• The number of USD longs crept a little higher last week for the sixth consecutive week.
• The level of EUR shorts plunged last week. This is despite the dovish tone of ECB President Draghi last month and may reflect continued reluctance of speculators to participate in carry trades.
• Net sterling short positions edged down modestly. The previous week they had moved to their strongest level since July 2013 following the comments from BoE Governor Carney that ‘now is not the time’ to hike interest rates. Political uncertainty linked to the UK EU membership referendum is a negative factors for GBP.
• CHF positions have held in negative territory. The CHF has slipped in the spot market sparking speculation that the SNB may have been intervening in the FX market in recent weeks.
• Net AUD shorts unwound some more of the recent gains. Chinese growth and the outlook for commodity prices remain principle drivers. CAD shorts also dropped lower. The outlook for crude oil prices remains a key focus.”