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30 Aug 2019

US Dollar Index climbs to three-week highs above 98.50

  • DXY pushes higher and trades above 98.50 on Friday.
  • Optimism on US-China trade talks improved markets’ mood.
  • PCE, Personal Income/Spending, U-Mich index next of relevance.

The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), continues its march north at the end of the week and moves to fresh three-week highs in the 98.50/60 band.

US Dollar Index up on trade news, looks to data

The index is prolonging the upside momentum in the second half of the week, advancing to the area of multi-week highs beyond 98.50 in tandem with positive headlines from the US-China protracted trade war and higher yields.

In fact, yields of the US 10-year note rebounded on Thursday and pushed the buck higher after China expressed its willingness to resolve the trade conflict, adding that the country will not retaliate after the recently announced US tariffs.

In today’s docket, inflation figures tracked by the PCE will be in the limelight along with Personal Income/Spending and the final August gauge of the Consumer Sentiment.

What to look for around USD

The inversion of the yield curve in combination with trade headlines keep driving the mood in the Greenback amidst concerns of an upcoming recession in the US economy at some point in the next couple of years. In the meantime, the solid labour market, strong consumer confidence and positive GDP readings appears to contradict this view for the time being, while inflation is seeing regaining upside traction in the near term. Powell recently reiterated that the Fed ‘will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion’, leaving the door open for probable rate cuts at the September/October meetings at his speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, although he did not unveil any reaction function regarding the interest rate path for the upcoming months.

US Dollar Index relevant levels

At the moment, the pair is gaining 0.06% at 98.51 and faces the next hurdle at 98.55 (high Aug.30) seconded by 98.93 (2019 high Aug.1) and then 99.89 (monthly high May 11 2017). On the other hand, a breach of 97.92 (21-day SMA) would open the door to 97.17 (low Aug.23) and finally 97.03 (200-day SMA).

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