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28 Jul 2021

AUD/USD: Bearish consolidation continues below 0.7400 on Australia Q2 CPI

  • AUD/USD eases from intraday top on despite firmer Aussie inflation figures.
  • Australia’s Q2 CPI crosses QoQ forecasts, RBA Trimmed Mean CPI matches market consensus.
  • NSW propels Aussie infections to 11-month top, extends covid lockdown in Sydney by four weeks.
  • Market sentiment improves ahead of Fed, Aussie PM’s speech, covid updates also become important catalysts.

AUD/USD seesaws around the intraday top, recently down to 0.7365, following the upbeat Aussie Q2 inflation figures amid early Wednesday. The risk barometers paid a little heed to the second-quarter (Q2) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data as markets await the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) verdict, as well as Australia PM Scott Morrison’s response to the worsening coronavirus conditions at home.

Australia Q2 CPI (QoQ) crossed 0.7% forecast and 0.6% prior with 0.8% figures while matching the 3.8% expected YoY figures versus 1.1% previous readouts. Further, the RBA Trimmed Mean CPI 0.5% and 1.6% respectively strong market consensus on the quarterly and the yearly basis in that order.

Read: Aussie CPI in line with expectations, AUD steady

As the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policymakers have already conveyed their wish to wait for “multiple quarters” of above 2.0% inflation target and the covid woes are escalating in the Pz nation, AUD/USD shrugs of the data.

Recently, New South Wales refreshed the highest daily covid count levels since March with 177 numbers, fueling the national tally to 205, an 11-month high. Following the grim results, NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian formally announced the extension of a four-week lockdown in Queensland. Additionally, Victoria’s unlock is also subject to multiple local restrictions.

The Aussie government jostles with the vaccinations and local outbreak of the Delta covid variant but Prime Minister Morrison remained optimistic during his last public appearance and hence his speech for today will be closely observed.

Elsewhere, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) conveyed economic concerns over the virus's resurgence and challenged the market sentiment. Also, China’s crackdown on IT and private education, as well as a deadlock over US President Joe Biden’s infrastructure spending, add to the market’s cautious mood ahead of the key FOMC.

However, S&P 500 Futures consolidate the previous day’s losses and the US 10-year Treasury yields also add 1.7 basis points (bps) by the press time, putting a bid under the riskier assets like AUD/USD/

Moving on, comments from the Aussie PM and the Fed decision will be the key for near-term AUD/USD moves. However, the bears are likely to keep the reins.

Read: Federal Reserve Preview: Three reasons why Powell could pause, pummeling the dollar

Technical analysis

AUD/USD bulls battle 10-DMA around 0.7375, a break of which will direct the quote towards a monthly resistance line near 0.7405. However, the pair’s upside remains doubtful until staying below the 200-DMA level close to the 0.7600 threshold.  Meanwhile, tops marked during late 2020 surrounding 0.7340 and the monthly low, also the lowest since November 2020, near 0.7290, could challenge the short-term bears.

 

Jul 28, 2021

Breaking: Aussie CPI in line with expectations, AUD steady

Australia’s second-quarter Consumer Price Index has been published in line with expectations and there has been no market reaction. Australia’s Q2 CPI
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Jul 28, 2021

BOJ Summary of Opinions: Important not to tighten monetary policy prematurely

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) published the 'Summary of Opinions' of its July meeting earlier on, with the key takeaways noted below. “Japan's economy has p
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