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10 Feb 2022

EURUSD traders fade the USD strength move and reach new YTD highs near the 1.1500 figure

  • The EUR/USD reaches a new YTD high at 1.1495, 5-pips near 1.1500.
  • The market sentiment is mixed due to the higher than expected US inflation number.
  • Money market futures show a 71% chance of the US central bank hiking 50bps following Fed’s Bullard remarks.
  • EUR/USD is neutral-upward biased, but it would need a daily close above February 7 daily high.

Following a higher than expected January’s US inflation report, the EUR/USD is rallying in the North American session. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.1476.

Financial markets mood is mixed after the US Department of Labor revealed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 7.5% y/y, a level last seen in August 1982. Additionally, the core CPI, which excluded food and energy, pierced the 6% threshold on an annual-based figure. Both readings were higher than estimations, further cementing the case of a Federal Reserve rate hike in the March meeting.

The CME FEDWATCH Tool, a gauge of market players’ expectations of the Federal Funds Rate (FFR), has fully priced in a 25 bps increase to it. Furthermore, there is a 71% chance of a 50 bps increase, which appears aggressive, as base effects could ease some. 

Nevertheless, on March 10, the US economic docket would feature CPI for February, which could significantly influence Federal Reserve policymakers of hiking more aggressive than expected.

At press time, crossing the wires, St. Lous Fed President James Bullard said that “I’d like to see 100 basis points in the bag by July 1,” as reported per Bloomberg.

Meanwhile, the Eurozone economic docket was pretty light, though it featured the European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Philip Lane. Lane said that “since bottlenecks will eventually be resolved, price pressures should abate and inflation return to its trend without a need for a significant adjustment in monetary policy.” 

Furthermore, he noted that “since monetary policy steers domestic demand, a tightening of monetary policy in reaction to an external supply shock would mean that the economy would be simultaneously confronted with two adverse shocks....”

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

At the release of the US CPI number, the EUR/USD initially broke below the 1.1400 thresholds, reaching a daily low of around 1.1380, followed by a jump of 120-pips near 1.1495, a YTD high. The EUR/USD has retreated from YTD high in the last hour, hovering above the February 7 daily high, a support level at 1.1464.

That said, the EUR/USD first resistance would be 1.1500. Breach of the latter would open the door towards November 9, 2021, daily high at 1.1609 and then the 200-DMA at 1.1664.

On the flip side, the February 7 daily high at 1.1464 is the first support level. Once cleared, the following demand area would be the 100-DMA at 1.1416 and the 1.1400 psychological level.

 

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